4月20日,国家统计局发布《2015年全国1%人口抽样调查主要数据公报》,公报显示,我国大陆60岁及以上人口为22182万人,占16.15%,其中65岁及以上人口为14374万人,占10.47%。按照联合国的传统标准是一个地区60岁以上老人达到总人口的10%或者65岁老人占总人口的7%,就算进入老龄化社会。因其特殊的身体条件与健康水平,老年化人口对医疗、养老大健康产业体系造成的压力越来越大,同时,伴随着大健康产业政策的进一步放开,对老年人的医疗照护、养老产业相关的大健康产业领域也迸发出新的机遇。

大健康产业养老服务需求快速上升

按照研究预测,我国老年人口的规模和占比将持续增长。60岁及以上人口将增长至2050年的4.92亿,占总人口的比例也从16.16%升高至37.88%;65岁及以上老年人口则将增长至2050年的3.75亿,占总人口的比例达到28.81%。

2016年4月20日公布的人口调查结果还显示,老年人口在整个社会所占比重的增速还有加快的趋势,上述公布显示:同2010年第六次全国人口普查相比,0-14岁人口比重下降0.08个百分点,15-59岁人口比重下降2.81个百分点,60岁及以上人口比重上升2.89个百分点,65岁及以上人口比重上升1.60个百分点。

由于长期较为严格的计划生育政策和人口转变,“十三五”期间将是20世纪80年代实施计划生育的夫妇集中进入老年的阶段,养老社会化是社会转型的必然结果。报告指出,家庭少子化、小型化和人口流动导致家庭内部难以解决养老问题,老年人不得不转而寻求社会服务,对社会养老服务需求的依赖性逐步增强。

同时,随着社会经济发展水平的提高,老年人的养老服务需求也呈现多元化趋向,从基本养老服务逐步向个性化养老服务发展。当社会养老服务法满足老年人的需求时,就可能引发社会问题,比如近年来颇受关注的广场舞问题,实际上已经形成了一定的代际冲突,必须引起重视。

医院、养老机构压力高企

在我国呈现“未富先老”的格局下,老龄化的到来不仅会引发各种问题,还会严重社保基金运营困局。另外,尽管在各种

大健康产业政策文件

中均提出要建设“以居家为基础、社区服务为依托、机构为支撑”的养老服务体系,但进展仍然不尽如人意。2013年,国务院发布的《关于加快发展养老服务业的若干意见》也指出,养老服务和产品供给不足、市场发育不健全、城乡区域发展不平衡等问题十分突出。

在医疗机构方面,英国诺丁汉大学医学和健康科学系生物分子科学中心主任伊恩·霍尔教授认为,老年人口急剧增长、饮食习惯的改变,都使得高血压、心血管疾病、肥胖等慢性病成为消耗医疗资源的“黑洞”,新型医疗模式的改革正“呼之欲出”。伊恩·霍尔表示,在英国,慢性病患者一般不会去大医院,而会选择到社区医院进行诊疗,

分级诊疗制度

正在激发医疗新体制的种种想象。他表示,希望能通过提高医疗服务可及性来创新医疗体制,从而来提高患者满意度。

而在英国诺丁汉大学健康科学学院国际事务部主任卡特琳·埃文斯教授看来,若要应对人口结构变化所带来的挑战,还需进一步发展专业护理

人才

。她表示,目前英国的高级、专科护士人数呈上升趋势,在诸多医疗服务中具有潜在影响力。专业护士会为病人提供专业、后续的医疗服务,增强康复路径,尤其对慢性病人起到教育、咨询的作用。

中国养老产业走上阳光快车道

全国老龄办副主任李耀东介绍,《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划的建议》明确提出,全面放开养老服务市场,通过购买服务、股权合作等方式支持各类市场主体增加养老服务和产品供给。“养老产业必将成为一个庞大的产业,除了日益增长的老年人口带来的巨量产业需求外,更重要的是人口老龄化将从根本上重塑年轻社会形成的产业结构和产业体系。”李耀东说。

“我国老年人口的快速增长、老年人比例不断提高必将催生一些新的养老方式和投资机遇。”中国建投集团副总裁刘志红表示,养老产业点多面广、产业链条长,涉及医疗、社保、体育、文化、旅游、家政、信息等多个领域。随着人民群众日益提高的生活质量需求和市场环境的成熟完善,将推动养老产业和养老服务机构的兴起与发展,养老产业已经成为朝阳产业。

针对目前我国养老产业发展规模小、发展水平不高,适应养老产业发展的政策体系不完善,资金投入相对不足,管理欠规范等问题,中国老龄产业协会副会长曾琦表示,“十三五”期间应该从破解养老产业发展的障碍和难题入手,着力培育好市场环境和政策环境,加强行业监管。

“中国养老产业要通过这样的趋势,先粗放后精细,先城市后农村,先刚需后普及,先数量后品质,先政府后民间。”民政部养老服务业专家委员会委员乌丹星说,中国养老产业已经出现曙光,还将释放出更大潜力

在具体研究投资机会上。中泰证券研报认为,参照政策、一级市场及日本经验,居家养老及其对应的“互联网养老服务”将是未来养老产业最主要的形式,而面向中高端人群的“精品化、连锁化”的商业养老地产有望在“十三五”期间获得爆发。建议投资者布局两条主线,精品化养老地产类公司以及互联网O2O“智慧养老”类公司。

另外,业内人士认为,潜在盈利机会主要集中于养老地产、养老医药、保险板块。对于养老地产,整合医疗资源+进入医疗服务市场的盈利模式已逐渐明确,看好有前瞻性养老布局、具有医疗资源整合能力的标的;养老医药产业已进入高速成长期,预计市场规模5年内翻倍,与养老相关医药标的向上空间较大;保险行业的业务贯穿整个养老产业链,可分享整个养老产业的政策红利,三支柱失衡、养老金缺口、政策的逐步兑现将带来确定性较强的长期上升空间。

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